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Investment ProcessApril 20269 min read

How Trade Estate evaluates development risk

A practical framework for location quality, permitting, construction execution, sales or leasing assumptions, and exit planning.

By Georgiy Arustamyan·CEO, Trade Estate Development

Most failed real‑estate projects fail twice: first in underwriting, then in execution. This is the framework we use internally to evaluate a project before any fund capital is committed. It is also the framework we share with investors when we walk them through a new pipeline asset.

Location is the only thing you cannot fix later

Every other dimension of a project — design, finishes, marketing, even financing — can be re‑worked mid‑cycle. Location cannot. So we underwrite it first and we are honest about what we are buying.

  • Macro‑location: city, neighbourhood, transit, school district, walkability
  • Micro‑location: the specific plot, orientation, view corridors, green frontage
  • Trend direction: is this neighbourhood improving or stable, and what's the catalyst
  • Comparable transactions: what has sold or leased in the last 24 months on the same block

Permitting is binary

A project either has clean permits and an approved planning path, or it has political risk. We do not buy political risk on the fund's balance sheet. Pre‑acquisition we work with local counsel to confirm permitting status; we walk away from projects where the planning path requires variances or environmental waivers we cannot verify.

Construction execution is where margin gets made or lost

We operate as developer end‑to‑end — Trade Estate Development handles project delivery in‑house with trusted local subcontractors. This gives us margin discipline that pass‑through GP structures cannot match. It also means construction risk sits with the developer, not the fund.

Construction risk sits with the developer, not the fund. The fund underwrites the developer.

Exit logic before subscription

Every project has a written exit memo before fund capital is committed. Three exit paths must be modeled: long‑hold rental, partial sale to institutional buyer, full sale of the asset. If two of three exits do not pencil at the target IRR, the project does not enter the fund.

About the author

Georgiy Arustamyan

CEO, Trade Estate Development, Trade Estate Group

Trade Estate principals write these notes directly. There is no ghostwriting and no outside commentary on assets we do not own.

Fondsstruktur

Ein privater Fonds.
Reguliert und dokumentiert.

  • EU-Fondsemittent

    Trade Estate SE (Societas Europaea · IČO 016 94 545), registriert in Prag, Tschechische Republik. Die investorenseitige Einheit für die europäische Fondstranche.

  • US-Betriebsgesellschaft

    TE & KD Group LLC (Florida LLC · FEI 32‑0692743), registriert in Fort Lauderdale, USA. US-Beteiligung unter Regulation D, Rule 506(c). Nur für verifizierte Accredited Investors. Nicht bei der SEC registriert.

  • Investoren-Reporting

    Zeichnungsverträge, Fondsbriefe und Auszüge werden über die gesamte Laufzeit der Position auf der Investorenplattform bereitgestellt.

  • Künftige Infrastruktur

    Tokenisierte Fondsanteile (RWA-Infrastruktur) sind in Entwicklung. Die zugrunde liegenden Konditionen und Ökonomie des Fonds ändern sich beim Start nicht.